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I'm no expert but in my mind you've already got the reasons right there. Natural food could be being carried to the windward bank, but it's also migrating to the shallows now and maybe that's all that matters to the bugs - head for the shallows not necessarily the back of the cold wind and shallow, so effectively from what I've seen you have snails and other naturals coming right up into the edges and that's possibly where the first new algae grows for them to eat. Sun - again its warming up all of the water, we cannot claim to understand where the warmer water is ending up, or whether they always need or want to be there, the draw of food could be much stronger than comfort. Cold winds -again what feels cold to us is not necessarily the same for them, it could be freezing to us but a tiny bit warmer than previous days to them so they go off on the hunt for whatever. Just because it is said they are dormant in winter I have also had many many liners on a freezing Jan night when they moved from one end to the other with a wind change. I got the liners as they left then 2 guys got them when they arrived 300 yards further away. I'm going for my first night tomorrow, will be interesting, I imagine I will walk the back of the wind first but will be doing laps looking for any early spots showing up. The work begins - cant wait

Danny fairbrass lol spodding the granny out of it

Went for a walk again there today even took note of wind direction Blue represents fish feeding lol 14 degrees overcast

,me and PVA have fell out had fast melt bags still on the lead come reel in and a foam nugget that spent all night on the hook. Stick mix only for me or whole baits in PVA netting.

Fish can’t read the rules but always be certain of one thing expect the unexpected i will never just say I’m fishing swim 4 because the wind is pushing into swim 4. But, I might have a closer look there when I’m walking around though lol.

Shelf life baits are now falling into 2 categories; attractor baits and food source baits, where maybe 15-20 years ago most were just attractor baits. As attractor baits, you don't want many around the hookbait, maybe 5 or so, with limited feed. You are relying on the attractor qualities of the bait for a pick-up. You could fish them (or a food bait boilie) over your background feed, groundbait, particles etc, but you don't want to prebait with them as the nutrition may not be high enough to get continued feeding. A food source bait, whether shelf life, air-dried or frozen can be pre-baited, conditioning the carp into eating them permanently. As a spotty youth, a bag of shelfies would last me weeks. I couldn't afford to pile in bait every weekend, so it was an out of the bag hookbait, with a stringer and maybe a few freebies catapulted around the area. Spods weren't invented, so any background feed was impossible! The advance of shelf life food baits, like Trigga, Solar Seafood Takeaway, Crafty Catcher King Prawn and Crab and Sea Salt, Rod Hutchinsons KMG and Monster Crab means that now I'm comfortable with shelfies. We then hit our next 'barrier', the type of water. A water where the carp are reliant on bait, of any type, 'overstocked' as it were, where the bait is needed to survive is a different kettle of fish (sic) to a water which is rich in natural food. The overstocked water you can get a take on anything, yet the rich water the carp may have a distinct preference for a good nutritious bait. They may pick up the attractor bait from being inquisitive but it may not last long as a viable bait. The food source will potentially be chosen over other foods; effort equals reward, or 1 food source boilie provides more nutrition than 2 mouthfuls of bloodworm, and is easier to eat. We also have the DF spod mix approach. A background feed composed of groundbait, be that Vitalin, particles, pellets, and a boilie over the groundbait. The boilie only approach, either food source or shelfie is now very rare.

@Danny Hearn I hope you don't mind an essay in return. Very few waters have proper thermoclines, they aren't deep enough. You are normally looking at a depth of around 10metres, or 33feet. The water below a thermocline is of a significantly colder temperature than above. In carp waters, we might get a localised patch of warmer water, the margins or around reeds but not a true thermocline. The water at the base of a lake is always in winter, going to be around 4⁰ Celsius, as water is densest at that temperature. Warmer or colder water will not sink to the bottom, but 'swirls' above it. It won't be until spring that it warms up, and even in deeper water, in the Lochs and Lakes it may stay that all year! Wind is weird, especially now in February. In winter it is rare for the fish to be following the wind at all, unless it is a really heavy warm south Westerly. You are also in the period when carp are hanging around their winter areas, the rushes, snags, gravel, old weed beds or food beds of bloodworm etc. Year after year they may use the same area, staying around the spot from late October/November until February/March. Even for loads of angling pressure they may only move a few metres. This is NOT always the deepest water in the lake, its weird seeing carp a rod length away from the bank in 4ft of water at the base of the rushes, when there is 6feet depth water a little further out. It is only some waters where carp will move up into sun warmed water if the day is bright, that area has to be close to the winter area. If it is half a mile away up the other end of the lake, then it is unlikely they will move. They may however, rise into the warmer water. Back to the wind, the carp following it is unusual, and I think to some extent that there is some celebrity bravado "I fished into the teeth of a cold North Westerly and caught carp in freezing conditions". Yep, I believe you, but you know that in the lake where the carp hole up over winter is a shorter 50yard cast rather than with the wind behind you where you will have to cast 200yards +. A bit of mickey taking, but you get my drift. I have fished in winter, where the bank facing the wind was the only one I could get a bivvy flat and comfortable without a serious slope down to the rods. Cold, very, uncomfortable at times, but yes I did catch 10 carp over 4days. Yet there may be times when the rule book goes out the window.

Slippy slope that accepting any rules and laws as valid I'm a if no one is complaining kind of guy. Bait like a few other products can be made to fit any budget I like messing around with bait I wouldn't call out the big companies though a good angler don't need a great bait. Me I can't catch nothing with shelflife baits I even struggle with CCmoore baits I like the honey to a badger approach.